The latest DTN/The Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index shows farmers have lowered their expectations for profitability this year due to the drought. Even so – they are more hopeful about the future than they were ahead of planting. The composite Agriculture Confidence Index accounts for how farmers feel about their present and future situations. It came in at 107 – with a value of 100 considered neutral, higher values indicating optimism and values lower than 100 indicating pessimism. When split into different time frames – the rating for the present is 120.4 – while the rating for future expectations is 98.2. The numbers indicate an attitude shift over the course of the growing season. Optimism about the current crop is down 20 points from March – but expectations for the future have actually strengthened slightly from 87.4 in March.

The view from agribusiness owners isn’t quite as rosy. The agribusiness composite index is 93.3. While business owners gave their current situation an optimistic 112.2 rating – their expectations for the future score only an 80.5. That is the lowest rating since DTN/The Progressive Farmer started tracking business confidence in 2010.

To get the Agriculture Confidence Index – at least 500 crop and livestock producers are surveyed about their input costs and farm income and whether they think those indicators will be better, worse or the same one year from now. Surveys are conducted before spring planting, before harvest and after harvest. Current ratings are based on responses to a telephone survey in August. The agribusiness index is based on responses collected from a minimum of 100 agribusinesses. The questions focus on current sales and profitability – as well as the direction business owners see those numbers heading 12 months into the future.