By BRENT MARTIN

St. Joseph Post

Even as the Missouri River recedes from historic to near-historic levels, forecasters at the National Weather Service worry about future flooding.

Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Low with the Missouri Basin River Forecast Center in Pleasant Hill is keeping an eye on larger than normal snowmelt in the northern Missouri basin.

“As I’ve been stating the past couple of days, we do expect renewed flooding along the Missouri River downstream of Gavins Point due to snowmelt inflows from the Big Sioux, the Vermillion, and the James (Rivers),” Low says during a conference call hosted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Low expects minor flooding between Omaha and Brownville, Nebraska in early April due to excess northern snowmelt. He expects Rulo, Nebraska and St. Joseph to remain in at least minor flood stage through the beginning of April.

The National Weather Service reports the Missouri River at St. Joseph dropped to 27.95 feet by 7:30 this morning. NWS projects the river will drop out of major flood stage this evening, reaching 26.9 feet by around 7 o’clock.

Low expects larger than normal snowmelt to raise the level of those three northern Missouri basin rivers to record heights. Whether that will translate to record crests on the Missouri downstream is hard to predict.

What isn’t hard to predict, according to Low, is that there will be more flooding.

“I just want to let folks know that we’re not over with the flood season, yet, and these projections for what the Big Sioux and the James will do at the end of the month do not include any rainfall that might occur between now and then,” Low says. “It just includes the snowmelt.”

Low says that is the unknown in all of this is:  how much rain the area will receive this spring.

“I believe that the public should be very concerned about the mainstem below Gavins Point for the next month, at least,” according to Low.

Snowmelt had been proceeding rapidly until temperatures dropped up north, slowing the rate of melting.