Despite the announcement Monday that water releases from the Gavins Point Dam will be reduced, the Army Corps of Engineers says now is not the time to let down our guard.

As we reported, it may take us several weeks to notice, but the Corps will soon reduce the amount of water released from the Gavins Point Dam into the Lower Missouri River.

Jody Farhat, the Chief of the Water Management Division, on Monday released an updated, three-week forecast of release activity at six dams upstream.   Within the extended forecast are calls to reduce flows from Gavins Point from 160,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 155,000 cfs on July 30th and 31st, and then down to 150,000 cfs on August 1st.

Inflows from upstream will mirror those reductions.

In a briefing Monday, Farhat said those numbers are subject to change “depending on actual conditions.” Although she cautions we “may never see it,” she says “any release reduction will be good news.”

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Farhat says they will continue to release 150,000 cfs through the summer, and that’s about double the previous record at Gavins Point.

Bob Ruch of the Corps says now is not the time to get complacent.

“Don’t get to happy about that yet,” Ruch said.

“We need to be extra vigilant at this time. The levees have been wet for a long time down below Gavins Point. I would hate to see anybody drop off in their surveillance or anything else.”

“We need to remain vigilant, and make sure we follow these actions through to the very end.”

Farhat said it could be several weeks after the reductions before we see any changes to local flood stages.   She says water will start to drain back into the river channel from areas where it’s over its banks, and that could keep stages high for several weeks.

For the complete three-week forecast, with a day by day breakout of releases from all six upstream dams,  visit the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers here.