Key lawmakers in Washington, D.C., cast significant doubt on the possibility of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement getting passed through Congress yet this summer. This comes in spite of the fact that political pressure is ramping up. Congress has a long summer recess rapidly approaching.

Politico says it’s looking like Democrats are sticking to their ideas that the agreement needs more changes. That may push a vote on the House floor at least into the fall. Waiting that long will only increase the risk of the much-needed bill getting swallowed up in the politics of the 2020 presidential campaign.

Representative Earl Blumenauer of Oregon is Chair of the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, who talked about the prospects of a vote on USMCA in the next few weeks. At an event last week in Washington, his response was a simple one, saying, “It’s not going to happen. I think it’s very unlikely that something is going to happen before Congress heads out of town on the August recess.”

An organization representing agricultural economists says a relocation effort by the Department of Agriculture will cost taxpayers. The Agricultural and Applied Economics Association claims the plan by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue would cost taxpayers $83 to $182 million dollars, instead of saving them $300 million as USDA claims.

Secretary Perdue is planning to move the Economic Research Service and the National Institute for Food and Agriculture away from Washington, D.C. and to the Kansas City area. Three AAEA member economists reviewed USDA’s cost-benefit analysis. The review found that USDA overstated the cost of keeping the agencies in Washington D.C., and that USDA had failed to take account of the value of research and data lost through resignations and retirements.

Additionally, the organization says a rushed, unplanned move will “undermine the quality of USDA agricultural economic information at a critical time for the nation’s agricultural and rural economy.” Given the economy, AAEA president David Zilberman says, “This is the worst possible time” for such a much by USDA.

Mexico this week became the first country to ratify the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. As expected, Mexico’s Senate quickly approved the agreement this week with an overwhelming majority. Canada is likely next of the three member countries to consider and approve the trade deal that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited with congressional leaders and President Trump in Washington this week, pressing the U.S. to approve the deal. Multiple trade hearings in Washington D.C. probed the issue this week as well. Canada is expected to approve the measure before September, possibly sooner than later. The U.S., which prompted the trade talks in 2017, faces roadblocks.

Republicans expect to pass the agreement and are calling on Democrats who lead the House to call for a quick vote. However, Democrats want to thoroughly review the agreement to ensure enforcement. President Donald Trump wants the U.S. Congress to ratify the agreement before leaving for an August recess, but the timeline to passage is unclear.

Farmers who planted cover crops on prevented plant acres can hay, graze or chop those fields earlier than November this year. The Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency adjusted the 2019 final haying and grazing date from November 1 to September 1 to help farmers who were prevented from planting because of excess rainfall this spring.

RMA says silage, haylage and baleage should be treated in the same manner as haying and grazing this year. Producers can hay, graze or cut cover crops for silage and hay on prevented plant acres on or after September 1 and still maintain eligibility for their full 2019 prevented planting indemnity. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson welcomed the announcement, stating farmers “are in need of options and common-sense flexibility.”

The Farm Service Agency will also extend the deadline to report prevented planting acres in select counties, and USDA will hold special sign-ups for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program to provide cost-share assistance in the planting of cover crops on impacted land.

New data released by Tariffs Hurt the Heartland shows Americans have paid nearly $22 billion in additional tariffs since the trade war with China began. The data, which is broken down by individual tariff action, shows American businesses and consumers have paid $15 billion in higher costs due to tariffs on Chinese imports. The data runs through April 2019, the most recent month available through the U.S. Census Bureau.

A spokesperson for the pro-free trade group says the tariffs are “erasing the benefits of tax reform,” and raising costs for U.S. businesses and families. The data shows more than 70 percent of the additional tariffs collected during the trade war have come from Section 301 tariffs on China.

Many of those tariffs increased from 10 percent to 25 percent in May. Through April, more than $15 billion in all tariffs has come from China 301 tariff actions. The data also shows exports generally decreased by 2.5 percent from April 2018 levels.

The Federal Reserve bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged following a Wednesday meeting, but amid economic uncertainty, signaled that future cuts could be warranted. During a news conference following the meeting, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that due to uncertainties in the economic outlook, the Committee will “closely monitor” the economy and “act as appropriate to sustain the system.”

The central bank left the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25 to 2.5 percent. Worrisome factors include the uncertainty in trade with China and others, as the Trump administration works through crafting and implementing new trade agreements. President Trump has previously argued that the Fed should cut rates, even considering removing Powell from his position, which Trump nominated him for.

Trade could improve, however, lessening the worry, as hopes are growing Trump and China’s President can resume negotiations next month starting with a meeting at the G20 Summit. Unchanged, or lower interest rates, may reduce worry in farm country, regarding the depressed farm economy, as well.