Brazil and China are looking to hold the first high-level political and economic talks they’ve had since 2015. A Reuters article says Brazil’s agricultural trade secretary expects the move will boost farm trade between the two countries. Reuters says the first meeting of the China-Brazil High-Level Coordination and Cooperation Committee is expected during the second half of this year.

The meeting will likely move talks forward on permitting more Brazilian meatpackers to export to China. It should also accelerate Chinese approval of genetically modified products. China is Brazil’s largest trading partner and the top importer of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil exports to China totaled $64.2 billion last year, a 35 percent jump year-over-year, thanks in large part to the trade war between China and the U.S. China recently sent a delegation to Brazil to visit factories that produce beef, poultry, and donkey.

The visual inspection is the first step in the process of allowing more Brazilian plants to export to China. Brazil has products that have been waiting two years for Chinese officials to approve them for importing.

Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that his department awarded $200 million to 57 organizations through the Agricultural Trade Promotion Program. The Hagstrom Report says the goal is to help U.S. farmers and ranchers find and get into new export markets around the globe. The promotion funds are part of the package that also included the Market Facilitation Program payments to farmers hurt be retaliatory tariffs, as well as a food distribution program to assist producers of targeted commodities.

In making the announcement, Perdue made a thinly-veiled reference to China by saying, “This infusion will help us develop other markets and move us away from being dependent on one large customer for our agricultural products. This is seed money, leveraged by hundreds of millions of dollars from the private sector that will help to increase our agricultural exports.”

Every sector of U.S. agriculture was allowed to apply for cost-share assistance under the program. The Foreign Agricultural Service looked at all the applications in terms of the potential for export growth in the target market, direct injury from the imposed retaliatory tariffs, and the likelihood that the proposed project will have a direct impact on agricultural exports.

The Trade Promotion Program provides assistance to eligible groups for things like consumer advertising, public relations, point-of-sale demonstrations, trade fair participation, and market research.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed some optimism last week about potentially reaching a trade deal with China. However, in the same breath, the New York Times says the president may consider leaving some tariffs in place even if the two sides eventually come to a landmark deal.

“Without the tariffs, we wouldn’t even be talking,” Trump says in an interview with the Times, conducted after two days of trade talks wrapped up. “And I made that point very clear to them.” Trump says he plans on meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, and the U.S. President says China was prepared to make “some significant changes” to Beijing’s economic policies. Some of the changes include better market access for American companies, as well as buying more American products.

The president had a letter from President Xi read aloud for reporters, and it included a commitment to buy five million tons of soybeans. That caught administration officials a little off guard. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was more guarded in his tone, saying the two sides haven’t put together the framework of an agreement yet. He did say the main achievement so far was, “that the two sides are still talking. It didn’t come off the rails.”

The staff at FSA offices across the nation have been back in action taking applications and issuing payments. Because of the furlough, national headquarters has extended some deadlines we want to make you aware of:

February 14–final date to opt-in on the Market Facilitation Program (MFP)
February 18-Office Closed for President’s Day
February 28-final date to enroll in the 2018 Livestock Forage Program (LFP)

Please note that you must “opt-in” to the MFP by the new revised deadline of 2/14/18, even if your harvest is not complete. Producers who are not completed with harvest will have until 5/1/2019 to certify their 2018 production. Please be aware of the need of landowners to apply for their share of the 2018 production. The deadlines are the same for them and we don’t want anyone to miss getting their payment on this program.

Please contact your local FSA office if you have any questions.

The first half of 2019 should see a shift away from current El Nino conditions. That prediction came from Dr. Art Douglas of Creighton University, who spoke during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar at the NCBA Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show. Douglas says as the trend develops, it should allow the eastern third of the country to remain drier as the jet stream pushes Gulf moisture across the southern parts of the U.S.

“After a cooler February, the U.S. will enjoy a relatively mild spring with a reduced threat of delayed planting,” Douglas told the crowd. As far as the markets go, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good says he is expecting prices to remain strong. “We’ve been on a good run for the past few years and I expect that to keep going in 2019,” Good says. “However, I do expect margins will begin to compress and leverage to shift from the cow-calf and stocker sectors over to the feeders as we expand the supply of cattle.”

Price risk will remain in place over the next few years thanks to five years of expanding herds. “Cattle producers, on average, will receive a smaller percentage of the retail beef dollar as larger cattle supplies increase price pressure across all segments of the industry,” he says. “Retail beef prices will likely see some inflation in the year ahead.”

Politico says the month-plus government shutdown has left U.S. Department of Agriculture officials with quite the backlog of commodity reports. They also have a lot of other numbers waiting to be crunched for future reports. Those numbers include the 2017 Census of Agriculture, which is a major survey taken every five years and includes every state and county which shapes a lot of future national policy and rural programs.

The National Ag Statistics Service announced this week that the survey results won’t be released on February 21st as originally scheduled. However, the agency didn’t announce a new release date. The first of many delayed reports came out on Thursday, which covered agricultural prices. Reports covering peanut stocks and poultry slaughter will come out on Friday.

The Foreign Agricultural Service also laid out a new release schedule for its backlog of weekly export sales announcements. The FAS reports got a lot of attention in December as China began to once again make large purchases of U.S. soybeans after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached a temporary truce at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires.

Many industry experts say it’s a “when not if situation” in terms of African Swine Fever reaching U.S. soil. Pork producers at the recent Illinois Pork Expo all agreed that ASF hitting the U.S. would be a disaster.

Mike Haag is the current past president of the National Pork Producers Council who says the U.S. pork industry is being proactive on keeping the virus out of American pork herds. “At this point, ASF in other countries has benefitted our industry from a demand standpoint,” he says. “However, if it does come to America it’ll be just the opposite. It will be devastating.”

Illinois pig farmer Dereke Dunkirk says he doesn’t think ASF in America is inevitable because America does a pretty good job with biosecurity. The Illinois Pork Producers message to their members at the Illinois Expo included preparedness. While it’s important to implement solid biosecurity protocols, Haag told producers it’s also vital to make sure their premise ID numbers are correct.

“Make sure your addresses and barn locations are correct,” Haag says. “If the industry does ever get shut down by a foreign animal disease, it’s vital to have the correct information because that’s how all livestock will move through a state.”

House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson says he’s worried the new farm bill won’t be able to provide adequate benefits to U.S. agriculture. While he admitted to those worries on Monday, he also said, “It is what it is.” The Hagstrom Report says Peterson first expressed those same concerns in December, just before the bill passed through Congress.

At that time, Peterson said his specific concern was that the benefits wouldn’t be generous enough for farmers during a period of low commodity prices compounded by trade conflicts. Peterson also says bankers are telling him they are also “concerned,” but he also said agriculture is just “going to have to live with it.”

While farmers were able to overcome the problem of low prices thanks to big crops, Peterson said that farmers in part of his district weren’t able to do that because of poor crops. The House Ag Chair says he believes the new dairy provisions in the bill are “adequate.” Peterson also discussed climate change this week, saying he would consider the issue “if anyone comes up with effective ideas.”

He also discussed biofuels policy, noting that agriculture had allied with environmentalists to write legislation on biofuels and ethanol. However, because cellulosic ethanol hasn’t taken off, environmental support for biofuels has diminished.