Farmers are expressing concern over the lack of a new farm bill in the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The monthly survey in November asked producers how concerned they were regarding the farm bill. 75 percent of respondents said they were either somewhat or very concerned about the lack of a new farm bill with 33 percent of respondents indicating they were very concerned. Just 24 percent of survey respondents said they were not at all concerned about the lack of new farm bill legislation.

The November survey reading announced Tuesday was 134, a decline of just over one percent from a month earlier when the barometer stood at 136. The November reading leaves the barometer six percent below its most recent peak, which was reached back in June before the impact of trade disruptions were felt throughout much of U.S. agriculture.

The Barometer surveys 400 agricultural producers monthly. Overall, a rating below 100 is negative, while a rating above 100 indicates positive sentiment regarding the agriculture industry.

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.1 billion, or 12.1 percent from 2017 to $66.3 billion in 2018, after increasing $13.8 billion in 2017. The Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service recently announced the forecast. USDA says, meanwhile, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $8.5 billion, 8.4 percent, to $93.4 billion.

Net farm income is a comprehensive indicator of U.S. farm profitability, while, net farm cash income less comprehensive and does not include noncash items, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Cash receipts for all commodities are forecast to increase $2.5 billion, However, when adjusted for inflation, cash receipts for all commodities are forecast to decline $6.1 billion, with crop cash receipts forecast to decline $1.6 billion and livestock cash receipts to decline $4.5 billion.

AFBF Chief Economist John Newton writes that the challenging financial situation highlights the need for improved access in key foreign markets, along with continued commitments to renewable energy, reduced regulatory burdens and a completed farm bill. Combined, Newton says “these efforts will go a long way toward improving the farm economic outlook.”

Agriculture eagerly awaits any details regarding increased purchases of U.S. ag products by China. President Trump over the weekend said following a discussion with China that the nation “will be buying massive amounts of product from us,” promising an “incredibly positive impact on farming.” Politico reports, however, there is no guarantee China will hold its end of the bargain, as China’s statement on the talks made no mention of ag products. There are also little details in the announcement from Trump as the quantities and specific products are undetermined, though the White House says the purchases will begin “immediately.” The U.S. Meat Export Council called China’s willingness to return to the negotiating table encouraging, but added that “exports cannot reach their full potential until the retaliatory duties imposed by Mexico, China and Canada are removed.” Trump also signed his North American Free Trade Agreement replacement on Friday that does not address steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which both have retaliatory tariffs in place over.

House Majority Leader Republican Kevin McCarthy of California Monday said the House of Representatives will not hold any votes this week due to the mourning and funeral for the late President George H.W. Bush. The announcement means the farm bill will not move forward this week, and the conference report that was expected early this week is now anticipated early next week, according to the Hagstrom Report. President Donald Trump has closed federal offices Wednesday, the day of Bush’s funeral. Trump is also threatening a government shutdown, but indicated over the weekend, he may approve funding extensions because of the limited schedule this week, pushing contentious issues later into the month, while still providing an opportunity to sneak the farm bill through the system before highly political issues, including the border wall, are tackled. The schedule leaves a week of planned time for lawmakers to wrap up the year.

The Environmental Protection Agency released its 2019 renewable volume obligations under the Renewable Fuels Standard. EPA boosted final RFS volumes slightly from its earlier proposal to nearly 20-billion gallons next year. That includes up to 15 billion gallons of mostly corn ethanol, nearly 5 billion gallons of advanced biofuel, over 2 billion gallons of biodiesel, and 418 million cellulosic gallons. Overall levels next year will be three percent higher than in 2018. Reaction to the news was mixed from various Ag groups. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says, “The latest EPA rule is also a missed opportunity to correctly account for billions of gallons of ethanol lost to refinery exemptions.” Until those lost gallons are taken into account, she said it’s “two steps back for every step forward.” The National Biodiesel Board says EPA sets the advanced biofuel and biomass-based diesel volumes lower than what the agency acknowledges will be produced. The NBB also says the rule leaves open a backdoor to retroactively reduce required volumes through hardship waivers. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says the total approaches 20 billion gallons. “The biofuel blending levels for 2019 are good news for farmers, biofuels producers, and all Americans,” he said. “The increased levels are an encouraging development after a year of often disappointing news from the EPA,” Grassley says.

A flurry of activity over the last week could bode well for agriculture. Over the weekend, President Trump met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit with China, which has since agreed to purchase more U.S. ag products. Trump also agreed to not further increase tariffs on China in January. Meanwhile, following the signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, Trump said he wants to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement in six months, which will be replaced by the USMCA. The move to terminate NAFTA is an effort to pressure the next Congress to approve the USMCA. Lawmakers could also soon take up the farm bill, which some thought could come this week, though the schedule of Congress is muddied by the passing of President George H.W. Bush, who will lie in state in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda for a portion of this week. Trump also said he may also be willing to allow an extension to appropriation bills that are needed by Friday, which include funding to the Agriculture Department, because of the expected limited schedule this week for Congress. All this comes as a fresh farm economic forecast predicts that farm income could drop another 12 percent in the next year.