Vietnam is emerging as the winner of the U.S.-China trade war. A new analysis by the American Chamber of Commerce in South China shows companies in China and the U.S. are losing market share, especially to companies from Vietnam, as a result of the trade war. Companies in China also report they are losing sales to companies from India, the U.S. and South Korea. For U.S. companies, the next rivals taking market share are Germany and Japan. The tariff situation could get worse if the Trump administration moves ahead with more tariffs in December against China, pending the outcome of talks at the G20 summit. U.S. soybean farmers or feeling the brunt of the trade war as China has steep tariffs on U.S. soybeans, and other agricultural products. President Trump said last week that the effort would take time, indicating no immediate end to the action.

Steel and aluminum tariffs by the U.S. will hurt agriculture more than NAFTA 2.0 will help. The updated North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, would grow U.S. agricultural exports by $450 million a year, according to the Farm Foundation. However, the organization says the retaliatory tariffs in response to the tariffs that President Donald Trump has imposed on steel and aluminum will cause U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada to decline by $1.8 billion. Those figures were presented in an analysis by Perdue University Wednesday. The report says, according to the Hagstrom Report, that with continued retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners, “the United States would see a decline in agricultural exports of $7.9 billion, thus overwhelming the small positive gains from USMCA.” However, those close to the Trump administration expect the steel and aluminum tariffs will be removed at a later date, before the USMCA is put into effect. However further escalations in the trade war this past week make those prospects sem dim.

Farmers National Company says 70 percent of farmland will transfer ownership over the next 20 years. The transfers will occur by sale, will, trust beneficiary or gifts, according to the company. For farm and ranch operations, land is by far the most significant asset in this transfer of wealth. Over the next five years, ten percent of the 911 million acres of agricultural land in the United States will change hands, which equates to two percent per year. About one percent will change ownership each year through inheritance, gifting, or closed sales. The other one percent will be sold in the open market, which equates to about 4.25 million acres per year on average available for purchase. The company says some of the sales will be from farmers and ranchers retiring, while the rest will probably be inheritors deciding to sell the land asset. Finally, the company says the next generation of landowners will typically be more removed from the farm or ranch and will be seeking information and guidance from various sources for making decisions.

The United States is readying more tariffs against China if there is no positive momentum following a meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Bloomberg News reports the new round will be announced if the talks during the G20 summit between the two fails. The new round, proposed to be announced in early December, would apply to imports from China not previously targeted by U.S. tariffs. The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on $250 billion in trade with China. And, ten percent tariffs on $200 billion in imports that took effect in September are due to increase to 25 percent starting next year. Trump has also threatened tariffs on all the remaining goods imported from China to the United States, worth $505 billion last year. China has targeted U.S. agriculture throughout the trade war, which has decreased markets for U.S. commodities in China.

The Department of Agriculture is readying round-two of trade mitigation payments for farmers. The payments are the second half of the $12 billion program by the Trump administration to compensate farmers for losses stemming from Trump’s trade agenda. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said he doesn’t expect the payments “any later than December,” according to Politico. USDA previously used about $6.3 billion to facilitate the program that also includes commodity purchases and trade promotion. The second round of payments offers the same per-bushel or per-head amount to farmers as the first round. Corn growers will receive one cent per bushel, and soybean growers will receive $1.65 per bushel, on 50 percent of production. Hog producers will receive $8 per head and dairy farmers will receive 12 cents per hundredweight. Meanwhile, wheat producers will get 14 cents per bushel, sorghum growers 86 cents per bushel and cotton producers six cents per pound.

The trade war between the U.S. and China is likely to shift U.S. soybean plantings to corn. For the first time in three decades, U.S. farmers planted more soybeans than corn in 2018. However, that’s likely to reverse again due to tariffs on U.S. soybeans from the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. Dow Jones Business and Financial News reports farmers could convert as much as four million acres from soybeans to corn next spring. For 2018, the Department of Agriculture estimated U.S. farmers planted 89.1 million acres of corn, and 89.6 million acres of soybeans. Soybean inspections from U.S. west coast ports are down 82 percent from year-ago levels, and soybean prices have dropped 11 percent as China has enforced a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans. Market experts say final planting decisions for 2019 may not occur until weeks or even days before farmers plant fields due to the uncertainty over tariffs.

The trade war between China and the U.S. will not be ending soon. President Donald Trump recently told Agri-Pulse that “you’ve got to have a little time,” referring to when trade relations may return to normal or better status between the United States and China. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 meeting in Argentina, but those talks are not likely to propel any major shift toward reaching an agreement on the future of trade between the two nations. The trade war started with Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, quickly escalating to include tariffs on U.S. farm products, most notably soybeans and pork. Further, a recent survey reported by Reuters shows that 85 percent of U.S. businesses surveyed say they have suffered from the trade war’s tariffs, and nearly half of the companies reported increases in non-tariff barriers, as well.

Canada is willing to stall a potential trade deal with China until China starts behaving better, according to CBC News. Canada’s ambassador to China says a trade pact doesn’t seem likely to be reached until China shows flexibility on controversial policies. Ambassador John McCallum says right now, much of the work on a potential trade agreement is focusing on “bridging policy gaps” on agricultural market access and political policies. He said last week: “We are doing our best to persuade China to behave in what we would regard as more reasonable.” Canada is working to reach an agreement with China, despite new provisions in the updated North American Free Trade Agreement that seek to block trade pacts with China. The NAFTA 2.0, renamed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, includes language that allows the nations of the agreement to withdraw from the pact if another nation created a trade agreement with China. However, Canada maintains that doesn’t stop them from engaging with China, and the USMCA is not yet finalized.