Strong growth in both the U.S. and global economies will support increased demand in domestic and export markets through the end of the year. However, U.S. competitiveness is currently constrained by trade uncertainties and the high value of the U.S. dollar, further placing pressure on the agricultural economy as output in most industries rises. The latest Quarterly Rural Economic Review from CoBank indicates that any significant farm price improvements over last year’s prices will be limited, particularly with record U.S. yields for many of the major crop commodities adding to available supply levels. Meanwhile, the animal protein and dairy sectors continue to benefit from strong domestic demand and the promise of better access to Mexico and Canada, but will need more export market growth to absorb their current pace of output and expansion. A CoBank spokesperson says that while recently negotiated trade deals show upside, “global demand for output from the U.S. agriculture sector is being outpaced by current U.S. production.”

The U.S. International Trade Commission will review the U.S.,-Mexico-Canada Agreement next month. The Commission is scheduled to meet November 15th for an economic review of the trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Politico reports that the ITC probe, which is required by Congress, formally launched Friday. The Commission has until mid-March to complete its report, and Congress is expected to wait until the review is finished to vote on the trade pact, however, Trade Promotion Authority rules don’t require Congress to wait for the review. The Commission is looking for how the agreement will impact the U.S. economy as a whole, along with the impact to specific sectors and consumers. The new trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada, is expected to be signed before the end of November by leaders of the three countries, but must be approved by the governing bodies of each nation before taking effect.

An Associated Press article says U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may meet during the G-20 summit in Argentina scheduled for late November. China says it is in contact with the U.S. amid reports of the upcoming meeting. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman offered no specifics but did say he’d seen the relevant reports. Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow tells CNBC that there is “some movement” toward a meeting at the G-20. Kudlow says, “They have lots to talk about, so we’ll see.” On the word of the potential meeting, global indexes had gained after a couple days of sharp drops. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has advised against naming China a currency manipulator, which is something that would trigger penalties, and reports say that move has eased some tensions between the U.S. and China. It’s not currently known if the U.S. will even consider lifting $250 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, which triggered retaliatory tariffs on American imported goods. Despite the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the trade deficit between the two countries defied expectations and widened in both August and September of this year.

Ag groups are largely supportive of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade package. However, many of those same groups say their biggest concern right now is ending retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products Those duties were put in place after President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue told Reuters this week that, with a trade deal in hand, the tariffs usefulness when it comes to Mexico and Canada have diminished. “I think it’s time we go back to our previous relationship which had no tariffs on steel and aluminum,” Perdue adds. If that happens, it could mean USDA will scale back on the second installment of its trade aid program. Perdue tells Reuters, “If the tariffs do come off and the tariff impact lessens, it will have some impact over the mitigation efforts because those efforts were based on the fact that they would be tariff damage-related.” USDA has already made $6.3 billion available for direct payments to farmers, commodity purchases, and marketing assistance. The department was scheduled to decide on a possible second round of trade reimbursements by early December. The agency had initially budgeted up to $12 billion for the aid program.

Soybean crushers in Brazil are running low on soybeans as they face tougher competition from Chinese buyers over the remaining 2017-2018 season supplies. A Bloomberg report says crushers in Brazil worked with negative margins since the second half of September. The pace of processing has slowed since the soy rally has doubled premiums this year, putting a squeeze on domestic producers. Other plants have halted all activities and say they won’t start up again until the upcoming harvest starts in the first quarter of 2019. One industry analyst says soybean product inventories are running low, with some plants announcing they no longer have soy oil to sell. The industry group representing soybean processors says crushing margins are getting pressure from higher soybean prices. However, it didn’t really slow the pace of processing until August of this year. Brazil soybean stocks are expected to fall by 1.5 million tons to their lowest-level since 1999. September exports totaled 4.6 million tons, with 91 percent heading to China.

The October World Ag Supply and Demand report predicts corn and soybean yields will both be lower than previously expected. Corn production is forecast at 14.78 billion bushels, down 49 million bushels due to a reduced yield forecast. Corn supplies going into harvest are forecast to be a record-high number, exports were raised by 75 million bushels, and USDA also forecast reduced feed and residual use. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.50 per bushel. Soybean production is forecast at 4.69 billion bushels, down 3.5 million as higher yields will be offset by lower harvested area. The season-average soybean price is predicted to range from $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, unchanged from the previous month. The wheat forecast predicts larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. The season-average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed to $4.80 to $5.40.

The Casey’s General Store chain announced a new partnership with Prime the Pump, a Growth Energy partner and nonprofit organization dedicated to helping give more consumers E15 at their local pumps. Casey’s says it will expand the offering of E15 to potentially more than 500 of its locations over the next few years. E15 is currently approved for nine out of ten cars on the road today and American drivers have surpassed five billion miles on it. Nathaniel Doddridge, Casey’s Director of Fuels, says, “We’re excited to partner with Prime the Pump and Growth Energy to build on the success and accelerate the offering of E15 to more of our customers.” Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says they’re very happy to see the partnership between Prime the Pump and Casey’s, saying they’re taking it to record-breaking heights to give more American drivers access to a clean-burning option at the pump. “Casey’s has seen the value E15 brings to their business and their customers, and will soon become the nation’s largest E15 retailer,” she says. “The announcement underscores the critical need for lawmakers to approve the year-round use of E15.”

Industry experts say the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement could lead to modest export gains for U.S. poultry, pork, and beef. A new report from CoBank says the agreement is expected to keep tariffs on food and agriculture between the three countries at zero. The report says the U.S. chicken sector exports are predicted to rise 47,000 metric tons in Canada during the first year of the USMCA. U.S. turkey shipments are predicted to increase by 1,000 metric tons annually. The CoBank report says the major holdup to increasing growth in other U.S. protein sectors is the pending removal of Canadian tariffs on prepared beef products, as well as Mexican tariffs on pork that were also put in place earlier this year. The report also says that the USMCA seems to be a combination of terms from NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the president dumped just days after taking office. CoBank expects the new USMCA agreement to be ratified by all three countries sometime in 2019.