Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts conceded this week a farm bill by the September 30th deadline is not likely. Overseeing the conference committee between the House and Senate, Roberts says it will be tough to see action completed on the farm bill before the November elections. He told Politico, though, he doesn’t want to consider extending the current farm bill because “it gives people the chance to weigh in again and delay” the negotiations, making an agreement a bigger challenge. The biggest challenge for the conference committee remains in the nutrition title of the farm bill, according to Roberts. The House version includes work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that is not welcome in the Senate and would prevent a farm bill from passing the chamber. Roberts says if the committee could get beyond the SNAP issue, “I think we could get ourselves a farm bill.”

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will tally how much of last year’s corn and soybean crops are still left in the bin around the nation. The Grain Stocks report is more of a census of what’s on hand than an estimate. This is because USDA collects information from more than 9000 grain elevators, terminals, and other storage facilities around the United States. It helps them to determine the total number of last year’s bushels on hand as of the first day of September. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs says his calculations aren’t far off from what USDA has already projected the report should show. USDA’s ending stocks figure from the September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for soybeans is 395 million bushels. Hubbs calculations is 4 million bushels larger but still very close to that figure. Because soybeans aren’t fed directly to livestock it is much easier to keep track of the total numbers of bushels used. That is not the case for corn. The feed and residual figure often times will vary outside of expectations says Hubbs. USDA’s corn current ending stocks projection is 2.002 billion bushels. Hubbs’ number is just a little bigger at 2.02 billion. The Grain Stocks report is scheduled for release at 11am central time this coming Friday.

Stalled talks between the U.S. and Canada regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement are expected to continue this week, as the U.S. desires to reach a deal by September 30th. Informal talks are likely over the next few days, according to Reuters, as global attention turns towards a U.N. meeting this week. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says nothing had formally been arranged for this week, however, leaving further uncertainty as to whether the U.S. will continue to seek a trilateral agreement. The U.S. appears likely to forge ahead with a U.S.-Mexico only trade agreement until the U.S. can reach an agreement with Canada beyond the September 30th deadline. Trudeau offered some pushback over the weekend, saying Canada would not be rushed into reaching an agreement and that he would not sign “a bad NAFTA deal.” Dairy market access remains a sticking point between the two nations, among a handful of other remaining issues.

Hopes of an on-time farm bill are diminishing as lawmakers now have less than a week to finish a bill, get it passed by both chambers again, and on the President’s desk for signature. The current farm bill expires September 30th, and the conference committee still must agree on changes in the conservation programs of the farm bill and the nutrition title. Top agriculture lawmakers don’t seem to be concerned, but farm groups are sounding the alarm bells as Congress runs out of time. Senate Agriculture Committee leadership last week said the real deadline that would impact farmers is in December. But, as Politico points out, many programs would be left in limbo regarding funding. For instance, mandatory funding is available for conservation programs, but without a farm bill, the Department of Agriculture’s authority to operate the programs expires. The bill’s Foreign Market Development program, deemed critical to developing new trade markets, could also lose funding. Lawmakers have yet to make any serious considerations towards extending the current farm bill to allow Congress time to deliver the next.

“Put this one in the bag and keep hunting for more,” says Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue of the signing of an updated trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea. President Trump signed an updated United States-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement, known as KORUS, Monday. Perdue says of the agreement that it adds to the “the momentum building for President Trump’s approach to trade.” In his statement, Perdue says that he is optimistic “the dominoes will continue to fall,” referring to the North American Free Trade Agreement, and new agreements with the European Union, Japan and even China. The new KORUS agreement is a “better deal for the entire United States economy, including the agricultural sector,” according to Perdue. The White House says the agreement is a sign that President Trump has “fulfilled his promise” to fight for American workers and businesses in an amended trade deal with South Korea.

The European Commission released a report that says American farmers are now supplying more than half of the European Union’s soybeans. Over a 12-week period from July through mid-September, U.S. soy exports to the EU were 133 percent higher than the same time period in 2017. Politico says the U.S. supplied 25 percent of the EU’s soybeans needs from July through mid-September in 2017, with that number growing to 52 percent of the EU’s soybeans in 2018. While the increase in soybean exports does provide some relief to American farmers, it still can’t replace all of the lost soybean sales to China. The U.S. exported roughly $587 million worth of soybeans to Europe during that 12-week period, which calculates out to $2.5 billion on an annual basis. China bought $12.3 billion worth of U.S. soybeans in 2017. That’s 60 percent of all U.S. soybean exports. As farmers know firsthand, those sales have dried up since China imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on American soybeans, as well as a host of other U.S. ag exports in July. The E.U. figures show that U.S. farmers have replaced Brazil as the top supplier for Europe. That comes as Brazil has replaced the U.S. as the top soybean supplier to China.

White House Economic Trade Adviser Kevin Hassett says the U.S. is getting very close to having to move forward on its trade deal with Mexico without Canada. The deadline to publish the text of an agreement to update the North American Free Trade Agreement is October first. As the deadline approaches, Hassett says the U.S. and Canada haven’t agreed to a deal. “We’re still talking to Canada,” Hassett says, “but we’re getting very, very close to the deadline where we’re going to have to move ahead with Mexico all by itself.” Hassett, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says he’s surprised that Canada hasn’t signed an agreement yet. “I worry that politics is trumping common sense because there’s a very good deal in place that was designed by both Mexico and the U.S. to appeal to Canada,” he says. “They’re not signing on to the deal and its got everyone puzzled.” Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Foreign Minister, left Washington last Thursday with no deal in place.

The Environmental Protection Agency released aggregated information on small-refinery exemptions to the Renewable Fuels Standard the agency issued over the last couple of years. A DTN report says they’ve also given out information on current and future waiver requests. The agency says it granted 49 waivers in 2016 and 2017. Those waivers added up to 2.25 billion gallons in biofuels, which negatively affected roughly 800 million bushels of corn demand. Because of those waivers, the National Biodiesel Board says that amounted to a loss of 300 million gallons of biofuels. In a statement issued last week, Acting EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler says, “Increasing transparency will improve implementation of the RFS and provide stakeholders and the regulated community with the certainty and clarity they need to make important business and compliance decisions.” Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue says he hopes making this information public will be beneficial for both the biofuels and agriculture markets. EPA says it will also post the latest Renewable Identification Numbers (RIN) weekly average prices as well as the volume of RINs sold. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says her group still has questions about how the EPA will resolve the issue of the lost gallons of biofuels.