China this week lowered its forecast for the 2018-2019 import season for soybeans due to the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Farmers are reducing their use of soybeans in animal feed in China as China has placed massive tariffs on U.S. soybeans. Imports of soybeans in the crop year that starts on October first will be 83.65 million metric tons, down 10.2 million from last month’s estimate of 93.85 million, according to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Overall, the forecast is lower than the 93.9 million metric tons imported during the 2017-2018 crop year. China also claims the lower forecast is due to the promotion of lower-protein feed for livestock and poultry, and falling profits at pig farms reducing demand for soybean meal. China also raised its corn demand outlook on rising feed consumption and an expected increased ethanol production. Reuters reports that the outlook illustrates how China’s vast pig farming sector is rapidly adjusting to a possible prolonged trade dispute with Washington. In July, China imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans.

The Department of Agriculture Thursday released details of the trade aid package calculations for payments, a method previously unknown and questioned by some ag sectors. As the Trump Administration talked with lawmakers on the trade package, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue released a “detailed accounting” of how USDA calculated estimated damage from trade disruptions. Perdue says the Chief Economist office of USDA developed an estimate of gross trade damages for commodities with assessed retaliatory tariffs by Canada, China, the European Union, Mexico, and Turkey to set commodity payment rates and purchase levels in the trade mitigation package announced by USDA earlier this month. Perdue says USDA used the same approach often used in World Trade Organization trade dispute cases. The full description of the Trade Damage Estimation for the Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program is available on the website of USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist.

Time to finish the farm bill before the September 30th deadline is running out. House and Senate ag leaders are working to quickly iron out differences between the two versions of the bill, but many believed the conference committee needed to wrap up this week to get a bill on-time. The Senate adjourned Wednesday night until Monday, and the House is scheduled to be out for recess all of next week. Senate Ag Committee Chair Pat Roberts told Politico talks could continue next week if Mike Conaway and Collin Peterson of the House Agriculture Committee return to Washington. Roberts says: “next week might be the final time that we have to reach some kind of agreement,” but added “the world doesn’t end” if no agreement is made next week. The biggest difference is the House version’s inclusion of work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. The work requirements are facing steep opposition from the other three committee leaders, Roberts, and top Senate ag Democrat Debbie Stabenow, along with Peterson of the House. President Trump attacked Stabenow via Twitter, saying her and other Democrats are “Against approving the farm bill.” However, Stabenow and Roberts have said work requirements will not pass the Senate.

All major U.S. animal protein sources experienced growth in exports in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. The Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service said this week that trade data for the first half of the year indicate year-over-year growth for U.S. exports of all major meats as well as dairy and eggs. Dairy exports led the way, increasing by nearly 20 percent, likely due to competitive prices. Lamb and mutton exports increased by 16 percent, albeit from a much smaller base than other meats. Strong global demand, particularly from Asian markets, pushed beef and veal exports up 15 percent. First-half 2018 pork exports, more than six percent above a year ago, were driven higher mainly by larger shipments to Mexico, South Korea, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. On the poultry side, turkey meat exports grew at levels on par with pork, while broiler meat and egg exports grew by only two and one percent, respectively.

The Latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand report predicts the second-largest corn crop for the United States this year and a record soybean crop. Corn production is forecast at 14.82 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month on an increased yield forecast. The outlook predicts larger production, increased domestic use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected ten cents lower with a midpoint of $3.50 per bushel. Meanwhile, U.S. Soybean production is projected at a record 4.6 billion bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down $0.30 at the midpoint. Finally, the wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month, and the season average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 to $5.50.

State agriculture officials say the Trump administration needs to aggressively seek market access across the globe, while expressing concerns with the administration’s trade agenda. The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture passed two resolutions this week during its annual meeting that leadership says reaffirms the critical importance of international trade to the organization. The group of state agriculture officials says NASDA remains concerned with the use of unilateral action against trading partners to correct trade disputes. The organization also says a fully-seated, functioning appellate body at the World Trade Organization will not only allow the U.S. to work with like-minded countries to hold China accountable for its trade-distorting practices, it will also “enable the administration to remedy trade disputes with other countries who may discriminate against American farmers and ranchers.” The organization is comprised of leadership from state agriculture departments.