Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuehl says he’s unhappy the White House is ratcheting up the trade war. While more tariffs on Chinese goods are set to go into effect in two weeks, he says the President is telling farmers to be patient as prices plummet and their markets are overtaken by foreign competitors. “That’s why with each new tariff announcement, polls show the patience of American farmers wearing thin,” Kuehl says. “Tariffs are causing long-term damage, not just to farming either, but also to American manufacturers and consumers.” He adds that members of Congress from both parties are hearing from Americans that are angry about tariffs while they’re back in their states and districts. “It’s time to end the trade war before tariffs cause any more economic pain for America’s heartland,” he adds. The group is launching an $800,000 ad campaign called “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland,” spread across radio, TV, print, and online ads on farm programming across the heartland. The ad buy is part of a larger $2.5 million national anti-tariff campaign the group launched in July.

The U.S. says it will begin imposing tariffs of 25 percent on an additional $16 billion in Chinese imports in t, further escalating the trade war between the two countries. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office says Customs will begin collecting the extra duties on 279 different product lines. The list includes a lot of industrial and machinery products. Agricultural machinery is on the list, including tractor pistons, seeders, planters, and irrigation systems. Bloomberg says this will be the second time the U.S. slapped more duties on Chinese imports in a month. The move comes as American companies complain that the more tariffs will eventually cost them more to do business and raise consumer prices. China has promised to retaliate with another $16 billion in tariffs on U.S. imports. The tariff total could actually increase soon. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office is looking into the possibility of a ten percent tariff on another $200 billion in Chinese goods. Those duties could be implemented shortly after the comment period ends on September 5th.

The National Pork Producers Council and the North Carolina Pork Council filed a court brief in support of lifting a judge’s gag order related to nuisance lawsuits filed against more than two dozen hog farms. Judge Earl Britt of the Eastern U.S. District Court in North Carolina imposed the gag order in late June, applying it to the lawsuit parties, lawyers, and potential witnesses in the lawsuits brought against Murphy-Brown, a Smithfield Foods subsidiary. The judge said a “significant increase in trial publicity” and the “volume and scope of prejudicial publicity” around the first two cases could taint future jurors. Both pork organizations filed a brief with the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, asking that the Appeals court grant the Murphy-Brown petition to vacate the District Court’s prior restraint on free speech. In the brief, the pork producers say that “all but the most carefully crafted, narrow gag orders are unconstitutional.” They also pointed out that “it’s not reasonable to think that any gag order will reduce coverage of the cases or the public’s interest in them.”

Farm Service Agency Administrator Richard Fordyce is reminding producers that the deadline to sign up for enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program is Friday, August 17th. “Any agricultural producer with eligible land should look into the benefits of this program,” Fordyce says. “It removes marginal, erodible land from production, thereby improving water quality, increases wildlife habitat, and provides more opportunities for recreational activities like fishing, hunting, and wildlife viewing.” For this year’s signup, limited priority practices are available for continuous enrollment. They include grassed waterways, filter strips, riparian buffers, wetland restoration, and others. FSA will use updated soil rental rates to make their annual payments, reflecting current values. It will not offer incentive payments as part of the new signup. USDA will not open general signup this year. However, a one-year extension will be offered to existing CRP participants with expiring contracts of 14 years or less.

In spite of an ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies, China may actually have to start buying U.S. soybeans in the near future. A Reuters report says oil seed analysis organization Oil World, based in Germany, says South American countries can’t supply all the soybeans that China needs. China is the world’s largest soybean buyer and has been buying South American supplies to make up for the shortfall caused by the trade war with America. However, South American supplies that are actually available for export are down. The latest newsletter from Oil World says China will have to buy more U.S. soybeans. “The South American supply shortage will make it necessary for China, in our opinion, to import 15 million tons of U.S. soybeans in October 2018/March 2019, even if the trade war isn’t resolved,” Oil World says in its newsletter. Oil World also says those Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans could start again in the “coming weeks.” Otherwise, without buying from America, domestic supplies of soybeans will get very tight in China.

Strong June results capped a tremendous first half of 2018 for U.S. beef exports. That’s according to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. June pork exports were lower than a year ago for the second straight month, but first-half volume and value remained ahead of last year’s pace. Beef muscle cut exports set a new volume record in June, coming in at 90,745 metric tons, 15 percent higher than in 2017. By adding in variety meat, total beef export volume was more than 115,000 metric tons. That’s six percent higher than 2017 and valued at $718 million dollars. International customers bought a larger share of beef production, even at higher prices, which indicates strong demand. After setting a new record in April, pork export volume has trended lower the past two months, mainly due to a drop in exports to the China/Hong Kong region. June pork exports totaled 191,303 metric tons, 4.5 percent lower than last year. The USMEF says pork exports face a challenging environment in China and Hong Kong. It’s not just because of retaliatory tariffs, but also because China is increasing domestic production.

(CME)The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 26 points, down to 117, in July making it the largest one-month decline in producer sentiment since data collection began in October 2015. The drop in sentiment was fueled by increasing trade war concerns and decreasing commodity prices. “This summer we’ve seen tariffs placed on imports of U.S. ag products by China and Mexico that are impacting producers’ bottom line,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “This month, we asked producers whether they expect to see their net income decline as a result of trade war conflicts. Over two-thirds of respondents indicated they expect to see lower income because of trade conflicts with over 70 percent of them expecting a net income decline of 10 percent or more.” Sharp declines were also recorded for the Index of Current Conditions, which fell from 138 to 99, and the Index of Future Expectations, which fell from 146 to 126 in July. The Ag Economy barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the country.
“Commodity prices dropped sharply in June and July, and there is real concern among producers that those prices will remain low and, possibly, fall even further,” said Mintert. In the July survey, approximately 4 out of 10 producers stated they think it’s likely December 2018 corn futures will trade below $3.25 per bushel and November 2018 soybean futures trade below $8 per bushel between mid-July and this fall. “Prices in that range would result in a significant cash flow squeeze for many farm operators,” said Mintert. “While prices at those levels would cover variable production expenses, it would leave some farmers falling far short of covering fixed and overhead expenses.” The negative outlook on commodity prices spilled over into farmland values as well, with 31 percent of producers saying they expect lower farmland prices over the next year. Farmers also became more apprehensive about making large purchases, as 73 percent indicated it’s a bad time for large farm investments.