Agricultural lending from U.S. banks increased nearly six percent in 2017, according to a new report by the American Bankers Association. Ag lending increased $5.9 billion to $106 billion last year from farm banks, which are defined as banks whose ratio of domestic farm loans to total domestic loans is greater than or equal to the industry average. Total farm and ranch loans from all U.S. banks at the end of 2017 was reported at $180 billion. ABA says asset quality remained healthy at the nation’s more than 1,800 farm banks as non-performing loans fell to a pre-recession level of 0.52 percent of total loans. However, an ABA spokesperson says the increase in lending shows bankers are “starting to see the effects of a weaker ag sector.” Meanwhile, more than 96 percent of farm banks were profitable in 2017, with more than 55 percent reporting an increase in earnings. In 2017, farm banks added more than 1,600 jobs, a 1.9 percent increase, and employed more than 88,000 rural Americans.

Farmers are expressing concerns regarding agricultural trade, according to the latest Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The barometer slipped to 135 in March, down five points compared to February, but unchanged from January’s results. The decline was attributed to farmers weakening perceptions of current conditions and a decline in their expectations for the future. The index surveys 400 producers each month and a figure above 100 is positive, while a figure below 100 is considered negative. Focusing on trade in March, the survey found nearly 50 percent of farmers included in the survey were concerned a trade war would negatively impact agricultural exports, as seen with the recent China tariffs. Regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement, one-third of farmers surveyed expect the U.S. to exit the agreement, while another one-third of farmers expect the U.S. to remain in NAFTA.

A lawsuit brief filed on behalf of poultry farmers details the alleged harm from the Department of Agriculture’s GIPSA rule withdrawal. The Organization for Competitive Markets claims the Trump administration and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue sided “with big ag over small farmers,” saying the GIPSA final rule would have helped level the playing field between farmers and agribusiness. In the filing, farmers from Alabama, Nebraska, and Kansas detailed the ways they claim market concentration has enabled large agricultural companies to retaliate against them for “standing up for their rights,” along with how the rules would have helped them seek legal assistance. Organization executive director Joe Maxwell says the group and more than 80 other farm organizations have called on the Trump administration to reinstate the Farmer Fair Practices Rules. Maxwell is a former Missouri Lieutenant Governor and has also served as the senior political director at the Humane Society Legislative Fund.

(CME) The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in March, given uncertainty around trade relations and possible implications for U.S ag exports. The 5-point decline in sentiment comes as a result of producers’ less-optimistic perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions fell 9 points in March to 134, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 4 points to 135. The barometer and both sub-indices are based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers. On the March survey, producers expressed both concern and uncertainty surrounding trade. Nearly half (47 percent) of respondents said that a trade war negatively impacting agricultural exports was somewhat likely, compared with just 28 percent who thought it was unlikely. The remaining 25 percent indicated uncertainty with a neutral rating. Producers also were asked about the likelihood of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement. More than one-third expressed uncertainty, while 28 percent expected the U.S. to remain in NAFTA and 34 percent said they expect the U.S. to exit the agreement. James Mintert, director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and principal investigator on the barometer project said that “These results are important for two reasons. First, nearly half of producers rated the risk of a trade war as at least somewhat likely. Second, producers’ concerns about risks to agricultural trade are broader than just the ongoing NAFTA situation.” The March survey also asked producers whether they thought now was a good time to make large farm investments, such as machinery or buildings. At 68 percent, the portion of producers indicating now is a bad time to make large investments is the highest level observed since May 2017. Mintert said this could be related to the trade situation. “Concerns about agricultural exports, especially as they relate to Chinese tariffs on U.S. ag products, could be one reason why fewer producers said now is a good time to make large farm investments,” he said.

(USMEF) We regret the Chinese government’s decision to impose an additional 25 percent duty on imports of U.S. pork and pork variety meat. The United States is a reliable supplier of pork products to China, and this decision will have an immediate impact on U.S. producers and exporters, as well as our customers in China. We are hopeful that the additional duties can be rescinded quickly, so that U.S. pork can again compete on a level playing field with pork from other exporting countries.
Exports have been a key driver of growth in the U.S. pork industry, and with nearly 27 percent of U.S. pork production exported last year, international trade is critical to the continued success and profitability of the U.S. industry. China is a leading destination for U.S. pork and especially for pork variety meat. In 2017, U.S. exported 495,637 metric tons (mt) of pork and pork variety meat to China/Hong Kong, valued at $1.08 billion – our second-largest international market by volume and third-largest by value. For pork variety meat exports only, this was our largest destination in both volume (321,116 mt) and value ($741.8 million), accounting for 63 percent of U.S. export value. Variety meat exports make a critical contribution to industry profitability, and last year these exports to China/Hong Kong alone equated to more than $6.00 per U.S. hog slaughtered.
With U.S. exporters facing tariff and non-tariff barriers in China and other key markets, it is especially important to expand and diversify our export destinations for U.S. red meat. USMEF is working constantly to identify new and emerging markets in regions such as Central and South America, Southeast Asia and Africa, and to expand our customer base in mainstay markets such as Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Canada.

Farmers for Free Trade released another television ad on Thursday as part of the effort to highlight the damaging impact retaliation from a series of new tariffs will have on critical ag exports. The new spot features Indiana corn and soybean grower Brent Bible, whose soy operation relies on exports to China, as do many more across the country. “I’m supportive of the Trump administration,” he says in the spot, “but I have concerns about current actions that have been taken on trade and tariffs. The fact that China is our number one soybean customer makes us very vulnerable. Our farm, and many others like ours, will be the first casualties in a trade war.” The spot will run for the next two weeks on cable news channels like CNN, Fox, and MSNBC. China has already announced $3 billion in retaliatory action, much of which was aimed at American agricultural exports, including fruit and wine. Farmers for Free Trade Co-Chair Max Baucus says, “China is looking to hit us where it hurts. That’s why they’re going after American ag exports.”

The U.S. Trade Representative’s new chief agricultural negotiator opened his doors on Friday to major agriculture industry groups. Greg Doud invited them in for meetings to discuss priorities and concerns about the North American Free Trade Talks and other trade negotiations. Farm groups representing commodity producers and agricultural processing associations likely expressed a lot of fears that tariffs against China and other countries will only invite punishing retaliation that would seriously hurt U.S. exporters. Doud met with commodity groups in one meeting and agricultural processors in the other. An industry observer told Politico that, “If I were Greg (Doud), I would certainly want to say I’d given all those groups an opportunity to air their concerns and hear directly from him before he was put into the mix of having to make some pretty important decisions.” Politico says frustrations are running both ways. The ag industry’s public campaign against President Trump’s trade decisions has frustrated U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who says he’s “tired of it.” He adds that the industry efforts have been “unhelpful to the administration’s trade agenda,” sources told Politico.

As the world’s two largest economies appear to be moving closer to a possible trade war, U.S. Ambassador Terry Branstad is warning China about the consequences of trade sanctions on U.S. soybeans. Branstad told Bloomberg Television that any attempts to cut down on U.S. soybean imports would hurt Chinese consumers more than it would American farmers. The crop provides a key source of protein, including as feed for hogs, to the country’s growing middle class. Branstad was asked about possible retaliation on soybeans and says it wouldn’t make sense and would only hurt Chinese consumers. “Ultimately, the Chinese will realize we should work together on our common issues and retaliation is not the answer,” he says, “instead, we need collaboration and cooperation to address issues that have been building for some time.” China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans and new measures against imports would result in an escalation of trade tensions. Curbs would hit Midwestern farmers hard in states that are crucial to President Trump’s efforts to keep Republicans in control of Congress after the general elections. China uses roughly one-third of the American crop to feed more than 400 million pigs. The U.S. trade deficit with China was a record $375 billion last year.