Be it a threat, or intention, if President Donald Trump starts the withdrawal process from the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico will drop the trade pact. If Trump decides to leave NAFTA, he would trigger a six-month process to withdraw from the agreement. An official from Mexico said this week that if Trump announces a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA, “at that moment the negotiations stop.” AgCanada reports that Mexico remains firm on its position to get up and leave from the negotiating table if Trump goes through with the move. While a NAFTA termination letter would start the six-month exit clock ticking, the U.S. would not be legally bound to quit NAFTA once it expires. Washington could use the move as leverage over Canada and Mexico in talks to update the 24-year-old trade pact.

Canada is becoming more convinced that President Donald Trump will soon announce U.S. intentions to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. President Trump told reporters at the AFBF annual convention earlier this week that he is negotiating tough for farmers, but did not rule out the possibility of withdrawing from the agreement. While the administration seemed to attempt to reassure farmers that the renegotiation will be completed and be better for agriculture, it appears Canada is calling it a bluff. A top unnamed government official from Canada told Reuters: “The government is increasingly sure about this…it is now planning for Trump to announce a withdrawal.” Negotiators from the NAFTA partner nations are due to meet for a sixth round of talks starting January 23rd, in Canada.

(NCGA) Education is a hallmark of Commodity Classic and this year’s schedule is one of the most robust in recent memory. The 2018 Commodity Classic will be held Feb. 27-March 1 in Anaheim, CA. Attendees can register for all three days or register for one day only. Gerry Hayden, a Kentucky farmer and co-chair of the 2018 Commodity Classic, said that every educational session was selected by farmers, for farmers. “We’re continuing to look for new ways to be more efficient, to learn more about our crops, how to sell our crops, how to market our crops,” he said. “Commodity Classic is a means of putting this all together under one roof. It’s farmer-led, farmer-focused, so we know what the average person that comes needs to understand and what’s on their mind.” Since many sessions are concurrent, registration also allows attendees to access videos of key educational sessions they may have missed on the days for which they were registered. Videos are available within a few weeks following Commodity Classic. “I hope that the show helps you raise questions about the way you do things”, said Paul Taylor, an Illinois farmer and co-chair of the 2018 Commodity Classic. “Are we doing this the best way to survive, to be profitable, to be conscientious to our neighbors, to our environment, and are we going to be profitable and sustainable in the long term? That’s what we want the agricultural producers to be. We want them to survive, we want them to be profitable, and we want them to be well versed in not only the topic but the technology of the day.” In addition to the schedule of educational sessions, the 2018 Commodity Classic includes speakers, a huge trade show, entertainment and the opportunity to network with thousands of farmers from across the nation.

(NAFB) Following his address to the American Farm Bureau Federation earlier this week, President Donald Trump told farmers and ranchers:

“Don’t get nervous” regarding his efforts to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. He made the comments during an interview with RFD-TV. In a separate interview with Agri-Pulse, Trump said: “I’m negotiating tough for the farmers.”

Trump says he thinks the new NAFTA agreement will “come out very well for the farmer.” However, the President did not promise to not withdraw from the agreement.

And, while NAFTA was top of mind for AFBF members, Trump Monday spared but one-line of his speech to the trade agreement, opting to focus on tax reform and regulatory relief.

The next round of NAFTA negotiations is set to begin later this month in Canada. AFBF officials believe agriculture issues could be a topic in the next round of negotiations, but stressful automobile-related issues are the main drivers for the renegotiation effort.

(NAFB) The leader of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says the wrong move on trade policy poses serious risk to economic growth.

In the annual “State of American Business” address, Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue says that if the U.S. is not leading on trade, “we’re falling behind.” He reasserted the business communities strong support for modernizing the North American Free Trade Agreement, rather than withdrawing from the agreement.

The U.S. Chamber largely agrees with the majority of agriculture, which seeks careful modernization of the trade agreement, under the slogan “do no harm” to farmers and ranchers.

Donohue did say that tax reform and regulatory relief, the same two issues championed by agriculture, have helped usher in a “new era of growth.” He also called for immediate action to modernize the nation’s infrastructure.

U.S. grain prices and demand for grain products will likely not change much, if at all. That forecast comes from Dr. Keith Coble, the Agricultural and Economics Department head at Mississippi State University. He spoke to attendees of the American Farm Bureau national convention during a workshop on global crop trends and the U.S. farm policy forecast for the year ahead. Unless some kind of a major market disruption occurs, such as intense weather damage or overseas market changes, 2018 will likely look a lot like 2017. “We really aren’t seeing anything that will significantly move the markets up or down in the short-term,” Coble says, “We’re going to see more sideways movement in the markets.” He calls cotton one of the most promising commodities in the year ahead. Coble addressed the outlooks for many of the major commodities, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice, predicting very little change. He also spoke about the future of crop insurance. “The overall percentage of the farm bill taken up by the commodity programs has diminished because of a shift away from Title 1 programs and toward crop insurance.” His prediction on the farm bill is minor tweaks to the legislation because of the short window that comes with an election year.

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue spoke to the crowd at the American Farm Bureau’s annual convention on Monday. According to a DTN article, Perdue told the crowd that the administration will soon present what it wants to see in the new farm bill. Although Congress actually writes the farm bill, the administration will present some “principles” they’d like to see kept in mind as the legislation comes together. Perdue says it’s the administration’s way of letting Congress know what they’ve heard from farmers and ranchers across the country. Perdue talked about the administration’s moves to cut down on federal regulations and asked the people in attendance what regulations they’d like to see removed. He wants people to “tell us what regulations are standing in the way of your prosperity and productivity.” The secretary urged people to go to the USDA website and tell them “what the silliest and most onerous rules are.” He also said the administration recognizes there is a lot of anxiety over the future of trade, but did say the administration is committed to finishing the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations.

Kansas Republican Senator Jerry Moran headlined a weekend discussion at the American Farm Bureau national convention titled “What’s the latest on the upcoming Farm Bill?”

Moran said it was an opportunity to speak before Farm Bureau members regarding the upcoming farm bill, the farm safety net, and the importance of protecting the rural way of life across America.

“I’ve heard not only from Kansas producers but also growers across the country, how important it is that Congress work in a bipartisan fashion to get a farm bill and a disaster relief bill to the President’s desk as quickly as possible,” he says.

The conference also allowed extensive discussion on the importance of trade to agriculture. “Our nation’s farmers and ranchers earn their living through ag exports and trade,” Moran says, “and I will continue to insist the administration remembers the importance that agricultural trade plays in the economy.”

Moran urged the farm bureau members to continue to convey the importance of trade to both Secretary Perdue and President Trump in the months ahead.