Since the arrest of a Huawei official in Canada, commodity flows between Canada and China have slowed. Reuters reports that the political dispute between China and Canada over the arrest of a Huawei executive is slowing canola shipments through Chinese ports and causing some importers to hesitate to buy from their biggest supplier.

Cargoes of Canadian canola in the time since the arrest have taken longer to clear Chinese customs and GMO permits. Canola stocks in Canada have reached record-high year-end levels and trade analysts call the delays by China in approving the shipments unusual. Normally, China buys some $2.5 billion of Canadian canola each year. Trade officials suspect that China is likely carrying out the heightened checks to “pressure Canada” amid the current diplomatic tensions.

A dozen traders, some with direct knowledge of sales in Canada and China, and others in the U.S. who monitor sales, told Reuters the shipping pace has noticeably slowed since the political dispute began.

The Department of Agriculture will release data for the upcoming USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028 report. The data tables, due out Thursday, will include projections for farm income, U.S. fruits, nuts and vegetables supply and use, and global commodity trade. Data tables containing long-term supply, use, and price projections to 2028 for major U.S. crops and livestock products as well as supporting U.S. and international macroeconomic assumptions were released in November of last year.

USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson says the complete USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028 report will be released on March 13, 2019, and will include a full discussion of the projections for U.S. commodity supply and use, farm income, and global commodity trade. USDA’s long-term agricultural projections represent a departmental consensus on a ten-year representative scenario for the agricultural sector.

The projections do not represent USDA forecasts, but rather reflect a conditional long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets.

The “Green New Deal” introduced by Democrats last week seeks to work with farmers and ranchers to achieve “net zero greenhouse gas emissions.” The resolution is nonbinding, which means it would create no new programs if it did pass Congress, according to the Hagstrom Report, but it is a framework for discussion, especially in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Food & Environment Reporting Network says one section of the resolution addresses agricultural production, calling for collaborative work with U.S. farmers and ranchers “to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector as much as is technologically feasible,” including by supporting family farming, investing in sustainable farming and land use practices that increase soil health, and “building a more sustainable food system that ensures universal access to healthy food.”

Rob Larew, senior vice president of public policy and communications for the National Farmers Union, says the organization understands “the need for action on climate change,” adding “NFU stands ready to work with Congress” to ensure that any federal legislation recognizes “what’s at stake for farm families and rural communities.” The Green New Deal, however, isn’t expected to gain any approval from Republicans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says “we’re not there yet” on reaching an agreement on the U.S.-Mexico Canada trade pact in Congress. Signed by all three nations and awaiting approval by lawmakers, the replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement is facing some political obstacles in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Pelosi and other Representatives argue that strong enforcement must be “central” to the new pact if the Trump administration hopes to get it through Congress, according to Politico. However, Pelosi says she is “optimistic” that the concerns can be resolved, saying she has “always thought that this was probably one of the easier trade agreements to come to agreement on.”

There are still several steps and economic reviews that must be done before the USMCA can be completed fully by the U.S. government. Agriculture groups remain hopeful that the agreement can be wrapped up by the end of this year.

The Department of Agriculture’s backlog of reports delayed from the government shutdown overall provided a neutral outlook. USDA reported 2018 corn production at 14.4 billion bushels with a national average yield of 176 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, USDA says farmers harvested a record 4.5 billion bushels of soybeans, up three percent from last year, with a national average yield of 51 bushels per acre.

As of December 1, 2018, USDA said corn stocks totaled 12 billion bushels, down five percent from last year, and soybean stocks were at 3.74 billion bushels, up 18 percent from last year. The new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. He says the world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, but bullish for soybeans, and that the Grain Stocks report was bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat.

The reports included the February Crop Production Report, WASDE, Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings, all delayed by the government shutdown. January WASDE reports were skipped by USDA because of the shutdown.

(FSA) The deadline to “opt-in” for MFP has been extended to February 14, 2019. There are only a few work days left for every producer who had a share of an eligible crop in 2018 to sign part D of the CCC-910. With the second payment now authorized, it is imperative that FSA gets everyone in by that date, and asks everyone to please help spread the word where you can.

If you’ve yet to visit the FSA office to opt-in on MFP please plan to do so soon. Just to reiterate, this program is for every producer who has a share of an eligible crop in 2018. This would include all operators and land owners who shared in corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, wheat, hogs, and dairy during 2018.

With the impending deadline and the number of producers that need to come in, they are requesting that you please contact the office to schedule an appointment for your visit. An appointment will save you time during the visit and allow them to be better prepared.

Will they or won’t they? President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping now aren’t expected to meet later this month. Officials on both sides had said the two presidents were scheduled to be face-to-face later in February but now, CNBC says a meeting before the March 2nd deadline is unlikely.

A senior administration official now says there’s “far too much work to do” in a short period of time before a deal can get done with China. President Trump had set a deadline of March 2nd to reach an agreement on trade. White House Trade Adviser Larry Kudlow tells Fox Business that Trump does expect to meet with Xi at some point in the future, but right now, it’s up in the air.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is pressuring Beijing to make structural changes that would bring an end to policies that force U.S. companies to hand over technology or intellectual property as a requirement for doing businesses in the country. “The administration has argued that such policies are a direct attack on U.S. innovation and represent a deliberate campaign by China to take over dominance in the tech sector.

The American Soybean Association says trade talks are good, soybean purchases are good, but lifting the tariff that China slapped on U.S. soybean imports would be better. The ASA says it’s the only way U.S. soybean producers can regain commercial access to China, their most significant overseas market.

“It’s encouraging that the administration is keeping soybeans in their trade conversations with China,” says Davie Stephens, ASA President. “The Chinese Vice Premiere’s commitment to buy another five million tons of soybeans is encouraging, but it’s not the answer. We need an agreement at the end of the 90-day period that specifically rescinds the tariff that China has imposed on U.S. soybean imports.” The ASA president says the “good-faith” purchase commitment is a positive sign that both countries are working towards the real progress that soybean producers are looking for.

However, the purchases don’t offset the damage done to the soybean industry since tariffs were imposed. It also doesn’t repair the long-term damage the tariffs have done to a relationship that was decades in the making. ASA is joining other organizations in asking congressional members to help strengthen their message to the Administration that rescinding the tariffs are vital to the health of the farm economy.