Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue will speak at the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show February 1, 2019. Perdue will give his remarks at the Closing General Session of the event, being held this week at the New Orleans Convention Center. He will address the farm bill, trade and other issues affecting U.S. agriculture.

The convention is the largest gathering of cattle industry professionals in the country, and the NCBA Trade Show will feature more than 350 exhibitors. NCBA President and California cattleman Kevin Kester says the industry is honored to host Secretary Perdue at the convention. Noting the many issues facing agriculture today, Kester says “It’s great that Secretary Perdue will share his thoughts and his agency’s plans with us.”

The annual meetings of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the Cattlemen’s Beef Board, American National CattleWomen, CattleFax and National Cattlemen’s Foundation will also be held during the event this week.

The Environmental Protection Agency says the now-ended government shutdown will not delay rules to allow year-round E15 sales. The EPA intends to finalize the rules in time for the summer driving season. An EPA official told Reuters, “I still think we can get the rule done in time and what I mean by that is get the rule in place by start of the summertime.”

The government shutdown prompted worry that the rule may not be finished in time for the summer driving season. The Renewable Fuels Association this month called similar comments made by Acting EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler encouraging. However, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says the EPA “would greatly improve its chances of getting the regulatory fix done before summer” if the agency separated the year-round E15 provisions from so-called ‘RIN reform’ provisions also being considered as part of the rulemaking package.

The Department of Agriculture did not supply more than 60 reports during the government shutdown and will supply much of that data next month. USDA announced Monday many reports, including final production reports for 2018 will be published on February 8th, the same date of the February World Agriculture Supply and Demand report.

However, American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Veronica Nigh says some of the data “will never be available.” For example, the January World Agriculture Supply and Demand report will never be published, but some of the data will be rolled into the February report. Many market analysts warn to watch for a glut of data from USDA that could shock the market over the next few weeks as markets had previously relied on privately reported data during the shutdown, but USDA reports are often considered a benchmark in reporting.

A CNBC report says the White House turned down a planning meeting with China last week over disagreements on enforcing intellectual property rules. U.S. Trade Representative officials were set to meet with two Chinese Vice Ministers to try to help resolve trade differences before a March 1st deadline.

A source close to the situation told CNBC that the meeting was called off. President Trump has said if no agreement is in place by March 1st, he’ll reinforce punitive tariffs on about half of all the goods China sends to America. The White House told CNBC that “teams from both countries remain in touch ahead of the visit by the Chinese Vice Premiere this week.” The Treasury Department and the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office both didn’t answer requests for comment by CNBC.

White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC that no meetings were canceled last week and that the only one on the schedule is when the vice premiere comes to Washington, D.C., for official negotiations. Joseph Lupton, a global economist for J.P. Morgan, says, ”I would characterize things as going in the right direction. Last week, China offered an olive branch, saying it would lower tariff rates and would pledge to import up to $1 trillion of U.S. goods by 2024.”

The Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation board of directors has voted to maintain the insurance premium assessment rate on the adjusted insured debt of Farm Credit System banks at a rate of 9 basis points for 2019. FCSIC will continue to assess a 10-basis-point risk surcharge on nonaccrual loans and other-than-temporarily impaired investments.

“At year-end 2018, insured debt was $281.8 billion, up by approximately $16.5 billion from year-end 2017,” said Jeffery Hall, chairman of the FCSIC board of directors. “The board decided to maintain the premium rate on adjusted insured debt because debt growth in 2019 is expected to be similar to 2018,” said Chairman Hall. Growth in adjusted insured debt was 6.2 percent in 2018.

Because of the premium assessments and investment earnings, the Insurance Fund finished 2018 above the statutory 2 percent secure base amount (SBA). Based on preliminary results as of Dec 31, 2018, the Insurance Fund level was $66 million above the SBA (or 2.03 percent of adjusted insured debt outstanding).

After deducting its operating expenses, FCSIC is required to transfer funds in excess of the SBA to an allocated insurance reserves account established for each System bank. After all year-end results are finalized, including reports of System institutions on their condition and performance, the board will consider using its discretionary authority under the Farm Credit Act to make payments from the allocated insurance reserves accounts.

Twice a year, the FCSIC board reviews the insurance premium rate and makes adjustments, if necessary, to maintain the secure base amount, which is 2 percent of the adjusted insured debt outstanding at System banks. FCSIC will review premium rates again in June 2019. The board bases its premium review on the following:

An assessment of the current level of the Insurance Fund and the projected growth of insured obligations
The likelihood of any potential Insurance Fund losses
The financial condition of the System banks and associations
The outlook for the agricultural economy
Any risks in the financial environment

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently released its Annual Energy Outlook for 2019 report. It’s a federal forecast for anticipated energy needs in the future. Chris Bliley, vice president of regulatory affairs for Growth Energy, says this report underscores the importance of providing lower-cost options at the fuel pump.

“America’s thirst for clean, affordable fuel options is set to remain strong for decades to come,” he said. “Consumers deserve a cleaner, more affordable options, and that’s exactly what higher ethanol blends like E15 can deliver. Regulators at the Environmental Protection Agency must act quickly on the president’s promise and open the door to competition at the fuel pump year-round.”

The new EIA report predicts that “motor gasoline and diesel fuel retail prices will increase by 76 cents per gallon and 82 cents per gallon, respectively, between 2018 and 2050. The jump in fuel prices over that time frame will come because of rising crude oil prices.

Additionally, the report also concludes that light-duty vehicle miles traveled will jump by 20 percent, going from 2.9 trillion miles in 2018 to 3.5 trillion in 2050. The rise in miles traveled comes as a result of rising incomes and a growing population.

The U.S. economy is still performing well by most key measures.

However, Global and U.S. economic prospects are weakening, and the agricultural economy shows few signs of an imminent comeback, according to a comprehensive 2019 outlook report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division.

A CoBank spokesperson says trade uncertainty, rising debt levels and market volatility are “threatening to derail the global economy and creating difficult operating environments for U.S. agriculture.” The CoBank outlook report examines ten key factors that will shape agriculture and market sectors that serve rural communities throughout the United States. With agricultural commodity markets depressed by global supply abundance and ongoing trade disputes, farmers and ranchers face the difficult task of cutting production costs. However, continually rising costs in agriculture are expected to squeeze producers, causing further margin erosion and financial stress in 2019. Further, the report says farmers should not bank on a fourth consecutive year of above-trend crop yields to make up for low commodity prices and rising costs.