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Trump Weighing NAFTA Cancellations to Push USMCA Through Congress

President Donald Trump and his advisers are said to be considering canceling the North American Free Trade Agreement to help push the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement through Congress. A ProFarmer report says if the move gets made, it may present Congress with a hard choice to make.

Marc Short is a former White House Director of Legislative Affairs who says, “It could be that he withdraws from NAFTA even before USMCA ratification gets to Congress. I think there’s a high probability of that, yes.” If the U.S. does end up withdrawing from NAFTA, it would take six months to go into effect. That gives Congress a deadline of six months to either approve USMCA or have tariffs slapped on about $1.3 billion worth of goods traded between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Emily Davis, a spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative, says they’re very confident that Congress will eventually approve NAFTA. “From the beginning, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has worked closely with Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate while renegotiating the agreement,” says Davis Speculation is that the Democratic-controlled House will take up the agreement around March or April.

More Refinery Waivers Filed; Ethanol Industry Concerned

Ethanol Plant

The Environmental Protection Agency recently released a list of updated data on several small-refinery hardship waivers filed under the Renewable Fuels Standard. Ethanol Producer Dot Com says seven new waivers have been filed for the 2018 compliance year.

One new petition for 2017 compliance has also been added to the list, and all of the waivers were filed between November 10 and December 18. As of December 18, the EPA has received 22 waiver requests for the 2018 compliance year. That’s up from the petitions that were filed between November 10 and December 18.

For 2017, EPA has received a total of 37 small refinery petitions, up from the 36 it had received by November 10. The agency has approved 29 petitions so far, with seven still currently pending and one declared ineligible or withdrawn. The 29 petitions that have been approved so far have exempted roughly 1.46 billion renewable identification numbers (RINs), keeping just over 13.6 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel from meeting the RFS blending targets.

A coalition of ethanol-related groups recently filed a lawsuit against the EPA over the small-refinery waivers. Brian Jennings of the American Coalition for Ethanol says the coalition believes the EPA is abusing the hardship waivers.

Friday’s Closing Grain Bids

December 28th, 2018

 

St Joseph

 

Yellow Corn

3.610

White Corn

no bid

Soybeans

8.20 – 8.27

LifeLine Foods

3.66

 

 

Atchison

Yellow Corn

 3.67

Soybeans

 8.27

Hard Wheat

 4.46

Soft Wheat

 4.56

 

 

Kansas City Truck Bids

Yellow Corn

3.66 – 3.68

White Corn

3.75 – 3.78

Soybeans

8.48

Hard Wheat

5.06

Soft Wheat

 4.82 – 4.87

Sorghum

5.90


USDA Cash Grain Prices

For more information, contact the 680 KFEQ Farm Department.
816-233-8881.

South American Soybean Production May Put a Damper on 2019 U.S. Exports

Upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China in January and the possibility of trade conflict resolution rallied prices after the G-20 summit in Argentina. However, Todd Hubbs of the University of Illinois says changes in the export market look to be minimal in the months ahead, even with China buying more beans from the U.S. “The potential for strong South American soybean export competition in the marketing year is the limiting factor in expanded U.S. soybean exports,” says Hubbs, an agricultural economist. “That’s in spite of any possible trade resolution with China.” The USDA World Production report estimates crop production in the major South American soybean-producing countries to be 7.02 billion bushels. Hubbs says that forecast is likely lower than what the real final number will be, due in large part to optimum growing conditions in Brazil. Overall, Hubbs says the prospects for a large South American soybean crop look very good, on top of an already excellent U.S. crop.

Trade-Aid Payment Deadline May Need To Be Extended

The majority of the U.S. Department of Agriculture hasn’t been disrupted by the partial government shutdown yet. If the dispute between Congress and the White House drags on, it could potentially affect how quickly the second round of trade aid payments get to farmers. Farm Service Agency offices remain open through Friday (today). That’s when money appropriated in previous years runs out. Farm Journal says if the standoff continues into January, it will more than likely affect the timing of at least a portion of the MFP payments. The article says if the dispute does drag on into early January, FSA will likely have to extend the application deadline for those payments, which is currently January 15th. That would be one consequence of any potential work stoppage at USDA. There are also some major reports that could be disrupted if the shutdown drags on. USDA would not get to issue some major reports, including the daily export sales numbers. That means it will have an impact on some major agricultural data.

U.S. and China Will Be Face-To-Face in January

Two people familiar with the matter tell Bloomberg that U.S. officials will travel to Beijing on January seventh to talk trade with Chinese officials. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffery Gerrish will lead the Trump Administration’s team to China for the talks. A Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman did confirm that the two sides will get together in January but didn’t provide a specific date for the talks to take place. The January meeting will be the first time the two sides have held face-to-face discussions since President Trump and Chinese President Xi (Zhee) Jinping agreed to a 90-day truce during da meeting in Argentina. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Muh-NOO-chin) did tell Bloomberg the two sides have had phone discussions since then. Bloomberg says the meeting adds to signs that the two largest economies in the world are cooling off trade tensions. Beijing recently announced a third round of tariff cuts, lowering the duties on more than 700 goods starting January first. Two people in Beijing with knowledge of the discussions told Bloomberg that China isn’t clear on exactly what the U.S. wants. President Trump has agreed to hold off on $200 billion in additional tariffs while negotiations are taking place.

Thursday’s Closing Grain Bids

December 27th, 2018

 

St Joseph

 

Yellow Corn

3.60

White Corn

no bid

Soybeans

8.06 – 8.14

LifeLine Foods

3.65

 

 

Atchison

Yellow Corn

 3.66

Soybeans

 8.14

Hard Wheat

 4.45

Soft Wheat

 4.55

 

 

Kansas City Truck Bids

Yellow Corn

3.65 – 3.67

White Corn

3.73 – 3.77

Soybeans

8.34

Hard Wheat

5.05

Soft Wheat

 4.81 – 4.86

Sorghum

5.88


USDA Cash Grain Prices

For more information, contact the 680 KFEQ Farm Department.
816-233-8881.

Foreign Ag Service Worked to Expand Trade in 2018

The USDA worked diligently in 2018 to expand trade opportunities around the world for U.S. ag producers. Those efforts paid off as global sales remained strong in spite of challenges in the trade arena through the year.

Ted McKinney, Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, says it’s been a “rollercoaster ride this year,” but U.S. farm exports remain strong, thanks in no small part to the Foreign Agricultural Service. One of the biggest highlights of the year was the successful negotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

USDA also broke down trade barriers and provided more access to overseas markets for several commodities. They included poultry and dairy to Canada through the USMCA, as well as lamb and goat meat to Japan, beef and pork in Argentina, poultry to India and Namibia, lamb to El Salvador, beef and poultry to Morocco, eggs to South Africa, and dairy to Turkey.

FAS staff also worked around the globe to assist U.S. exporters in releasing hundreds of shipments that had been detained in foreign ports. USDA made sure that more than $77 million of perishable U.S. products arrived safely at their intended destinations. Among them was beef to Bulgaria, cherries to Taiwan, cranberries to China, and even lobsters to the United Arab Emirates.

Second Round of Trade Aid Payments Underway

USDA is moving forward on the second and final round of trade mitigation payments to farmers hurt from retaliation by America’s trading partners. Commodity producers are now eligible to receive Market Facilitation Payments on the second half of their 2018 production.

USDA has been sending out the first round of MFP payments to producers since September on the first 50 percent of their 2018 production. The MFP payments are designed for almond, cotton, corn, dairy, hog, sorghum, soybean, fresh sweet cherry, and wheat producers. Producers are only required to register one time for both the first and second round of payments.

The MFP signup period runs through January 15, 2019, but producers actually have until May 1 to certify their 2018 production numbers. Farmers who haven’t done so can find signup information and instructions at www.farmers.gov/mfp. Eligible producers must wait until harvest is completely finished as payments are made based on 2018 total production.

Farmers that have already applied, completed harvest, and certified their production, will receive a second payment on 50 percent of their production, multiplied by the MFP rate for each commodity.

Federal Government Shutdown FSA County Offices to Remain Open Through Friday, December 28

(FSA) During a government shutdown, agencies that have funds appropriated in prior years that are carried forward can continue to serve customers until that money is used up. As a result, FSA county offices will be remain open through Friday, December 28.

If you need to visit your FSA county office, please call your local office to ensure we are open before you make the trip. Farm loan services will be limited. You can find your local office by visiting https://www.farmers.gov/service-locator.

As a reminder, signup for the Market Facilitation Program ends on January 15, 2019. You do not need to be finished with harvest to sign up. Farmers have until May 1, 2019 to certify production.

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