Tariffs Hurt the Heartland released data that showed an increase in import tariffs and falling U.S. exports due to new tariffs and international retaliation. They say tariff costs to U.S. businesses have never been higher, the data was drawn from the U.S. Census statistics on tariffs.

The data includes the first look at the full weight of the tariffs that were imposed on $200 billion in Chinese imports, as well as the impact of trade retaliation. The data also shows that U.S. businesses paid $6.2 billion in tariffs during October, which is the highest monthly amount in U.S. history.

It’s also more than twice the amount that businesses paid in tariff costs last year. A Tariffs Hurt the Heartland release says the numbers don’t lie, “Americans are paying these taxes and they’re paying more than ever before,” says group spokesman Charles Boustany. The tariffs aren’t making our country wealthier, they’re doing the exact opposite.”

Boustany says the data shows that the tariffs have been an unmitigated failure in achieving any of the Administrations’ goals. The former Congressman says, “American businesses, farmers, manufacturers, and consumers are suffering under the weight of the current tariffs and are reeling from the continued uncertainty over whether they’ll be increased further.”

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi caused doubt about whether or not Congress will approve the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement.

The Canadian Press says Pelosi met with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in her Capitol Hill office before issuing a statement that said the trade pact does have some positive aspects to it. However, she says, “It’s just a list without real enforcement of the labor and environmental positions.” In the statement, Pelosi said she and Lighthizer had a “constructive conversation.”

The chief trade negotiator says that he wants Democrats to not only vote for the deal but to “be happy with the agreement.” Meantime, President Trump is now threatening to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement. That might potentially leave lawmakers either ratifying his trade agreement or going back to the pre-NAFTA trade laws. Pelosi called Trump’s tactic “disappointing but not surprising.

Farmers thought they’d have more details on the second round of USDA trade-aid payments by now. However, Farm Journal says the payments are still under negotiations.

USDA is negotiating with the Office of Management and Budget for that second round of payments under the Market Facilitation Program. USDA had originally intended to release the information on Monday. The agency had wanted to assess the potential impact of the temporary U.S. and China trade truce.

The OMB is tasked with making sure the cost of what the government projects it will spend is kept in check as much as possible. Following the China news, Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue told farmers that payments would still be happening. “From my perspective, nothing has changed as far as the damages farmers have experienced,” Perdue says. How large those payments will be is unclear, but they will likely be a different amount than the first round of payments.

The Farm Journal report says the prospect of a more normalized trade flow with China going into 2019 might mean this round of aid payments will be a little less than they were before.

U.S. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced that Morocco will begin importing U.S. beef and beef products this year. 2018 will be the first year that U.S. beef and poultry exporters have had access to the Moroccan market under the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement. Morocco has already opened up its market to U.S. poultry back in August.

“New access to Morocco for beef and beef products is an important step in ensuring that our farmers and ranchers can continue to expand their exports of U.S. agricultural products,” says Lighthizer. “American beef is the best in the world,” Perdue says, “and as soon as the Moroccans get a taste of it, they’ll surely want more.”

As of last month, U.S. ag exports to Morocco were worth more than $512 million dollars. Initial estimates say that Morocco could be an $80 million export market for U.S. beef and beef products. In 2017, the U.S. was the third-largest beef exporter in the world, with global sales of beef and beef products worth $7.3 billion.

China appears to be getting ready to follow through on commitments it made with the White House in a short-term trade bargain with the U.S. Politico calls it a potentially encouraging sign for U.S. ag producers.

A Chinese government official said the two countries reached agreement in sectors like agriculture, autos, and energy. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a short-term trade truce during discussions in Buenos Aires. Politico quotes a Bloomberg report saying Beijing officials are preparing to resume importing products like soybeans and liquefied natural gas. That appears to confirm White House statements that said China will begin buying more American farm goods “immediately.”

It’s not known for sure if China will drop its retaliatory tariffs on soybeans and other commodities, or possibly compensate customers. It’s also unclear yet when the promised purchasing will begin. In another positive sign for the long-term discussions, China also announced new punishments for IP theft. That’s one of the central disputes the U.S. hopes to resolve through further negotiations over the next three months.

Average grain elevator margins are expected to be relatively normal this year for most of the Midwest. However, according to a new report from CoBank’, elevators should be cautious about the outlook, as several variables, such as trade issues, could affect elevator margins.

Corn and wheat margins look solid on good carry and expected basis improvement, although corn ownership may be difficult for some elevators to obtain. Soybean margins for the year ahead face some uncertainties. Elevators are confident they will make a margin, but the question is when. Trade, logistics and export competitor production will be major factors impacting margins going forward. A CoBank economist says soybean basis appreciation will face resistance over the next year as “ample supplies and weak demand will continue to hobble the market.”

Farmers will opt to store the crop as elevators seek to purchase it. Corn basis remains relatively strong considering the large crop, thanks to strong domestic demand. Ethanol use is expected to increase year-over-year, and feed demand will remain robust as cattle, hog and poultry numbers continue to increase. Amid this strong demand, elevators will likely see strong basis appreciation this year.

Steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada and Mexico remain a roadblock that would limit the impact of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Politico says the tariffs could prove to be a huge obstacle for congressional passage of the deal next year, as lawmakers have expressed displeasure with the duties remaining in place, despite a new trade agreement.

The U.S. is facing industry and agricultural retaliatory tariffs on more than $15 billion worth of goods. Agriculture industry analysts say the tariffs would negate any benefit from the trade agreement. Negotiations to remove the tariffs are ongoing, with some expecting the tariffs to be replaced with quotas.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said any deal to eliminate the U.S. duties should be “fair” to Canada and Mexico, but maintain “the integrity of the president’s steel and aluminum programs.”

The Ranking Democrat of the House Agriculture Committee predicts the farm bill will be considered next week. Representative Collin Peterson of Minnesota told reporters this week the bill is nearly finalized and should be filed Monday, with House consideration Wednesday and Senate consideration Thursday.

Peterson says the bill would rename the Margin Protection Program and change the way it operates in an effort to better help dairy farmers. He says dairy farmers “got the best deal” out of the agreement, and “they needed it.” The bill includes another provision that will refund half the premiums paid under the MPP program “because everybody thought they got ripped off.”

Peterson also says of the agreement in principle that it would raise the Conservation Reserve Program, or CRP, acreage by three million acres, but reform how it works. He says there are also changes in how yield is calculated in the Ag Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs. Full details of the bill will be made available next week.