Soybeans were one of the first major casualties in the ever-escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Russia is hoping to take advantage of the situation and cut deals with Chinese agribusinesses to make up for lost supply. The Washington Post says the Kremlin will offer roughly 2.5 million acres of arable land to foreign investors. Analysts are describing it as a bid to replace the U.S. as China’s most reliable soybean supplier. China is short on filling its soybean needs after the high stakes trade war got going with the U.S. through the summer. Beijing dramatically cut purchases of U.S. soybeans in response to the tariffs imposed on Chinese products by the Trump Administration. The Post article says Chinese officials are making plans to trim around seven million soybean tons off of the nearly 33 million tons it’s been buying annually from U.S. farms. Soybeans represent U.S. farmers’ single largest agricultural export to China, which takes approximately 60 percent of the world’s supply every year. Beijing’s cut in American purchases as sent U.S. bean future prices tumbling.

The trade war between China and the U.S. seems primed to worsen as the governments failed to make progress in two days of discussions. Reuters says the two sides met last week with low expectations of progress and there are no further talks scheduled at this time. A source close to the negotiations told Reuters that Chinese officials have raised the possibility of no further talks until after the U.S. elections in November. The lack of progress adds to uncertainty for businesses who now have to weigh the risks when considering investments in the U.S. or China. A new round of tariffs could take effect as soon as early September. There’s no guarantee they’ll be the last tariffs or that there won’t be other measures taken as well. The two countries engaged in talks for the first time since last June. U.S. officials were due to meet with delegations from the European Union and Japan to discuss joint efforts to confront China at the World Trade Organization over its industrial subsidies and conduct of its state-owned enterprises.

The farm bill conference committee will meet September 5th, according to Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts. Roberts will chair the farm bill conference. The conference is set for one day after lawmakers return from the Labor Day Recess. Roberts also says committee staff members have made progress on the differences in the two bills on conservation, but not on other issues, according to E&E News. Typical first public meetings, as this one, are simply speech-filled affairs. Much of the work of the committee is expected to take place within closed-door meetings. The conference committee must find a bill that can pass both the House and Senate. But, with the House work requirements included, and with a ratio of Representative and Senators favoring the House, the biggest obstacle will be getting a bill that can pass the Senate. The Senate version of the bill does not include the controversial work requirement for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participants.

A handshake between Mexico and the United States is expected today on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Politico reports the Trump administration is planning to formally announce a breakthrough with Mexico on the talks, which could pave the way for Canada to resume negotiations with the United States. The announcement is “on the schedule,” however, plans can, and often do, change in negotiations. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office maintains there “is no deal on NAFTA,” adding “there are major issues outstanding.” But, the White House could announce a “handshake deal,” that would be an effort to move forward with the talks beyond issues only between the U.S. and Mexico. Getting any agreement with Mexico would be positive for U.S. agriculture, as it would offer some market stability and a certain future, much needed as Mexico is a top buyer of U.S. corn. However, NAFTA is just one piece of the Trump trade puzzle that the industry wants solved quickly.

The Department of Agriculture is expected to release further details of its trade relief package Friday. The aid package previously announced by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue will provide $12 billion in assistance to farmers hurt by President Trump’s trade agenda. Agri-Pulse reports that sources involved with the process say the payment rate for soybean farmers has been preliminarily proposed at $1.65 per bushel and one cent per bushel for corn farmers. However, further details regarding the plan have not been released officially, or leaked, leaving the industry in a phase of wonder. USDA would not confirm or deny the proposed payment rates to Agri-Pulse. A USDA spokesperson told Agri-Pulse the department will not confirm the information because “it is based on preliminary information, is incomplete, and lacks context.” The proposed payment rates are subject to change as the plan is under review by the White House Office of Management and Budget.